Is the Zestimate Correct on My House?

If you’ve typed your address into Zillow and wondered, “Is this Zestimate actually right?” the honest answer is: maybe—and “maybe” depends a lot on what kind of neighborhood you live in, how unique your home is, and how complete the public data is.

A Zestimate is Zillow’s automated estimate of a home’s market value, generated by an algorithm that uses available data like past sales, tax/assessment records, location, and home characteristics (beds/baths, square footage, lot size, etc.). Zillow also notes that the model’s accuracy improves when there’s more reliable data available for a home and its surrounding area.

Why Zestimates can be pretty close in neighborhoods like Brier Chapel

In communities where:

• Many homes were built around the same time (often within the last 10–20 years)

• Floor plans repeat or are very similar

• Recent sales are plentiful and comparable
  …automated valuation models tend to perform better.

That’s why a neighborhood like Brier Chapel can be a place where the Zestimate is more likely to land in the right ballpark: the algorithm has a large set of “apples-to-apples” sales to learn from.

Zillow publishes national accuracy metrics showing that on-market homes (actively listed) have a much lower median error rate than off-market homes (not listed). Nationwide, Zillow reports a median error rate of about ~1.8–1.9% for on-market homes and about ~7% for off-market homes.

Translation: even when Zestimates are “good,” off-market estimates can still be meaningfully off—especially in higher price ranges.

Why Zestimates can swing widely in neighborhoods like The Oaks, Downtown Historic Chapel Hill, or Hope Valley Country Club

Now let’s talk about areas where the Zestimate is more likely to miss.

In neighborhoods like The Oaks, Downtown Historic Chapel Hill, or Hope Valley Country Club, homes can vary dramatically in:

• Age (historic vs. newer infill)

• Renovation level (fully updated vs. untouched)

• Craftsmanship and materials (custom woodwork, high-end finishes, specialty architecture)

• Layout and livability (additions, converted spaces, ceiling heights)

• Lot value and setting (walkability, privacy, topography)

• True “micro-location” factors (traffic noise, trail adjacency, view corridors)

Automated models struggle when there aren’t enough truly comparable recent sales, or when a home’s value is driven by details that don’t show up cleanly in public records (quality of renovation, design choices, condition, privacy, natural light, curb appeal, etc.). Zillow openly notes that Zestimate accuracy varies based on data availability and completeness.

A quick reality check: what Zestimate “accuracy” actually means

Zillow’s published error rate is a median figure across the country. That does not mean:

• your home is within that range, or

• your neighborhood behaves like the national median.

It means half are better, half are worse, and certain home types (unique, renovated, historic, luxury, rural, or low-data areas) are more likely to be on the “worse” side.

5 reasons your Zestimate might be off (even if the number looks confident)

1. Incorrect home facts (wrong square footage, beds/baths, or missing additions)

2. Renovations and upgrades aren’t captured in public data

3. Your home is unique compared to nearby sales (custom build, special lot, architectural style)

4. Few recent comparable sales in your immediate micro-market

5. Condition and quality differences can’t be reliably read from public records

What you should do instead: get a CMA for the most accurate pricing picture

If your goal is to understand what your home would actually sell for, the best next step is to ask your Realtor for a Comparative Market Analysis (CMA).

A strong CMA goes beyond an algorithm by:

• selecting the right comparable sales (not just “nearby”)

• adjusting for differences that matter (renovation level, lot, layout, condition, upgrades)

• weighting neighborhood micro-locations properly

• factoring in current buyer behavior, inventory, and days-on-market trends

In other words: a Zestimate is a useful starting point, but a CMA is what you want if you’re making real decisions—pricing, timing, renovations, or a potential move.

My take as a local Chapel Hill–Durham-Cary area Realtor

If you live in a newer, more uniform neighborhood, your Zestimate may be a reasonable range. If you live in a neighborhood where homes vary widely in age, quality, remodel level, and style—treat the Zestimate as a conversation starter, not a pricing strategy.

If you’d like, I’m happy to prepare a CMA and walk you through:

• what the most relevant comps say

• what buyers are paying for right now

• and what your home’s best pricing strategy would be in today’s market

Reach out any time, and I’ll help you get a clear, data-backed answer.