July 2026 Triangle Real Estate Market Report

What I'm Seeing Across Chapel Hill, Durham, Cary, Raleigh & the Greater Triangle

Last month, I said the biggest thing I would be watching in July was new listings.

In June, fewer homes came on the market year-over-year in Chapel Hill/Carrboro, Durham, Raleigh, and across the broader Triangle region. My question was whether that was the beginning of a real shift toward tightening inventory—or simply a one-month slowdown.

July gave us an answer, but not a simple one.

The Triangle is becoming increasingly market-specific.

Chapel Hill and Carrboro saw a dramatic reversal, with new listings jumping 45.1% year-over-year in July. Chatham County was also up substantially at 19.5%. Meanwhile, Durham new listings declined 4.4%, Raleigh declined 2.7%, and Cary/Apex/Morrisville was essentially flat at -0.4%.
But what I'm seeing while working with buyers and sellers tells an even more interesting story.

This is a market of two very different experiences.

I recently represented buyers purchasing a beautiful new-construction home in Chatham County that had been sitting on the market. We negotiated a purchase price about 3% below asking. The appraisal later came in at a little more than 5% above what my clients paid.

That's a real buyer opportunity.

At almost the same time, I had buyers find their dream home the first day it appeared as a Compass Private Exclusive. They had been searching for two years and didn't want to risk another buyer seeing it or competing with them. They offered 10% over asking to get the house off the market.

That's today's Triangle market.

Buyers can have significant negotiating power on one house and almost none on another.

The house determines the market.

Chapel Hill & Carrboro Market

July was a significant change from June. New listings went from being down 9.3% year-over-year in June to up 45.1% in July. Inventory is now 23.2% higher than it was last July. Despite those additional choices for buyers, both median and average sales prices remained higher year-over-year.

My Take

Chapel Hill and Carrboro continue to demonstrate why it's dangerous to make broad statements about this market.

More inventory doesn't automatically mean falling prices.

Buyers have more choices, but the homes that are beautifully prepared and appropriately priced can still attract immediate attention. I'm seeing buyers become very decisive when the right house comes along—particularly when they've already spent months or even years looking.

For sellers, having more competition makes presentation even more important. Fresh paint, refinished or new flooring, staging, curb appeal, professional marketing, and the right price matter.

You don't want to be the house buyers compare favorably against someone else's listing.

You want to be the house they fall in love with.

Durham Market

Durham softened in July. New listings declined 4.4%, but inventory remained almost 19% higher than last year. More importantly, both median and average sales prices were down approximately 7% year-over-year.

My Take

I think Durham has softened somewhat.

It's also important to remember that Durham is one of our largest markets, so we're looking at a much broader mix of homes, neighborhoods, and price points than in some of the Triangle's smaller markets.

For buyers, this can create opportunities—particularly with homes that have accumulated days on market.

For sellers, it reinforces the importance of getting the price and presentation right at the beginning rather than assuming you can test a higher price and adjust later.

Cary, Apex & Morrisville Market

Cary, Apex, and Morrisville had an interesting July. New listings were essentially unchanged from last year, while closed sales increased 8.5%. Median and average prices were both lower than July 2025, although year-to-date prices remain almost flat: median price is up 0.4% and average price is up 0.5%.

My Take

One month doesn't make a trend.

The year-to-date numbers tell a steadier story here than July alone. Demand remains healthy, and this continues to be an area where buyers are attracted by location, schools, employment centers, amenities, and quality of life.

One number I'm watching is months of supply. Despite inventory being slightly higher than last year, months of supply actually fell 9.7% to 2.8 months.

That doesn't suggest a market where buyers suddenly have unlimited leverage.

Raleigh Market

Raleigh had perhaps the most notable slowdown in July. Closed sales fell 17.8%, the median sales price declined 4.5%, and homes took 36% longer to sell than they did last July.

My Take

I think Raleigh has softened.

But there's another number here that I find fascinating.

The median sales price was $449,000, while the average sales price was $604,258.

That $155,000 difference is a reminder that a single "average Raleigh home price" doesn't really describe this market. The mix of buyers and homes being sold matters enormously, and higher-end transactions can pull the average well above what the typical transaction looks like.

That's why real estate decisions shouldn't be made from a headline about what "Raleigh prices" are doing.

You need to look at your neighborhood, your price point, your competition, and the condition of the individual home.

Chatham County Market

Chatham County saw significantly more homes come to market in July. New listings increased 19.5%, while inventory rose 11%. Closed sales were also up slightly, but homes took longer to sell and the average sales price declined 6.4%.

My Take

This is where buyers may find some interesting opportunities.

My recent new-construction transaction is a perfect example. My buyers were able to negotiate approximately 3% off the asking price—and the home subsequently appraised for more than 5% above their purchase price.

The important distinction is that they weren't simply making a low offer because "it's a buyer's market." We looked at the specific property, its time on market, the competition, and what the numbers supported.

That's the kind of negotiation this market rewards.

What This Means for Sellers

I'm seeing just about everything from sellers right now.

Some sellers who need to move are reducing their prices and responding to the market.

Others don't have to sell. Rather than accept a price they don't like, they're letting listings expire, withdrawing their homes, staying put, or choosing another option.

I've rarely seen so many expired listings.

There's an old lesson my first broker taught me that I still think about today. He asked:

"Would the house sell if you listed it for $1?"

Of course it would.

The point wasn't that you should give your house away. The point was that every home has a price at which the market will respond.

I call it finding the home's sweet spot.

In this market, the formula I'm seeing work again and again is surprisingly straightforward:

Fresh paint. Refinished or new flooring. Staging. Curb appeal. Strong marketing. The right price.

When those pieces come together, homes sell.

What This Means for Buyers

Buyers have more negotiating opportunities than they did a few years ago, but don't confuse that with having negotiating power on every house.

A home that's been sitting for weeks or months may present an opportunity to negotiate price, repairs, or concessions.

The beautiful new listing that checks every box may be an entirely different story.

I've experienced both situations with my own clients recently: one buyer purchased below asking and another willingly offered 10% above asking because after two years of searching, they knew they'd found their home.

The question isn't simply:

"Is this a buyer's market?"

The better question is:

"What's the market for this particular house?"

One Trend I Didn't Expect: More Unrepresented Buyers

One of the most interesting changes I've noticed this year isn't in the MLS statistics at all.

I'm showing my listings to more unrepresented buyers than I ever have before.

I'm not sure what's driving it.

Is it the headlines about real estate commissions? Frustration with bad experiences or bad agents? Do consumers feel that AI tools like ChatGPT can give them enough information to navigate a transaction themselves?

It may be some combination of all three.

Technology has made real estate information far more accessible, and I think that's a good thing. But having access to information and knowing how to use it in a negotiation are two different things.

In every transaction I've been involved with this year where I've represented either the buyer or seller and the buyer had an agent, the seller agreed to pay the buyer-agent compensation.

In one transaction where the buyer chose to represent themselves, I believe they left approximately $40,000 on the table based on what I knew about the seller's position and the previous contract that had fallen apart the week before.

It worked out very well for my seller.

Interestingly, I'm currently buying a home myself in an area I don't know well—and I'm using a local agent.

I work in real estate every day, but I still want someone on my side who knows that particular market, understands the nuances I don't see every day, and can negotiate from experience.

Technology is an incredible tool. I use it constantly.

But a good real estate agent is still worth their weight in gold.

What I'm Watching Next Month

Last month I was watching to see whether the decline in new listings would continue.

July gave us a mixed answer.

Chapel Hill/Carrboro and Chatham County saw substantial increases in new listings, while Durham and Raleigh continued to see fewer new listings than last year. Cary/Apex/Morrisville was essentially flat.
So for August, I'm watching something slightly different:

What happens to all this inventory?

Do sellers adjust their expectations and find the price that brings buyers through the door?

Do more unmotivated sellers simply withdraw or let their listings expire?

Does buyer activity pick up and absorb the available inventory?

And perhaps most importantly, do the best homes continue to behave almost like they're in a completely different market from everything else?

Right now, that's exactly what I'm seeing.

There isn't one Triangle real estate market. There are dozens of smaller markets operating simultaneously—and sometimes two houses just a few miles apart can have completely different outcomes.

As always, every neighborhood and every home tells its own story. If you're thinking about buying or selling in Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Durham, Cary, Apex, Morrisville, Raleigh, Pittsboro, Chatham County, or anywhere in the Triangle, I'd be happy to help you understand what today's market means for your particular home and your goals.

Warmly,

Tana Widdows
Compass Real Estate | Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Cary, Durham, Raleigh & the Triangle